Pour out thoughts

Memories, you make me smile sometimes,
You take me to my happy places.
Oh! How I long for you to let me stay there,
Stay there as long as life goes.

Memories you make me sad somtimes,
Making me realise what all is lost.
Oh! How I long to go back to them,
Back to them, not to change, just to feel again.

Memories you defy me sometimes,
Being my own thread, you side with them.
Oh! How I long for you to be loyal,
Loyal as you are to them.

Memories you make me helpless sometimes,
Whether to embrace or be repelled by you.
Oh! How I long to make peace with you,
Make peace for my soul.

Memories you complete me all the time,
You keep me in the company of those I cherish.
Oh! How I love this power of yours,
Power to make every moment eternal.

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Silent Scream

Pour out thoughts

Silent scream

In the cold night of December, I stood still
Facing gushes of wind and teasing them at its every failure
To haunt me, drain me or force to bend my knees.
I was mighty, knight in a shining armour,
Little did I know, the final test of strength was due still.
Next day, the sun was bright and glowing in its fame,
Putting princess Frosty to shame.
I mixed shades of green to the fire spikes and
Continued my last night’s fight.
A development took place in my line of sight,
A new character for history to write.
He was tall and dark, heavily build
Hair ties in a bun ad gaze set straight and sealed.
His approaching steps shuddered me and the sun felt numbingly
Warm against my skin.
Every step he took, each gap he closed,
I felt in me the will to run more and…

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Unwritten rules on wall street __(2)

Sharing another one #Unwritten rules on wall street described by Mr. #PeterLynch in his book – One up on the #Wallstreet

2. The bigger the #clients, the more talking the #portfoliomanager has to do to please him. The #wins and losses are reviewed after every third month, by clients and bosses who demand immediate results.

If they buy a stock which has never been heard before and unfortunately it turns out to be a bad move , they have to spend hell lot of time just defending that one stock.
Even if chances of that stock being a multibagger some day, still they will have to drop it because client just doesn’t like it.

#Fundmanagers in general spend a #quarter of their working hours explaining what they just did- first to their immediate bosses in their own department, and then to their ultimate bosses and your biggggg clients.

What happens with them is they have to believe and remind themselves that it’s safer to pick #companies in a crowd and ignore the words of #wisdom and that’s how they tend to squeamish in their #stock selections.

Unwritten rules on wall street

I will be sharing series of #Unwritten rules on wall street described by Mr. #PeterLynch in his book – One up on the Wallstreet

1. You will never lose your job losing your client’s money in an established company but you will lose that if you put that in an unknown stock, untouched and unobserved by Wall Street analysts.

If you bought that established company’s #stocks and it goes bad, the clients and the bosses will ask “What’s wrong with that damn company today”? But if an unknown company’s stock goes bad, they are gonna ask : “What’s wrong with you”?

That’s why security-conscious #portfoliomanager don’t buy unusual companies stock until wall street analyst follows that one.

Crux: #Success is one thing, but it’s more important not to look bad if you fail.

Has the World changed for Airline Industry? Cheap travel days are over?

Recently, Warren Buffett (Oracle of Omaha) admitted that he made an understandable mistake when valuing the airline stocks as a near-global halt in travel due to the corona-virus sent their prices sharply lower. He mentioned that he has dumped its entire interests in airlines business i.e. four largest US airlines, collectively has 80% of the revenue passenger miles in US (American airlines, Delta airlines, Southwest Airlines and United Continental).

It is clearly visible that the airline industries are really hurt by a forced shutdown by events. Some of the carriers have already collapsed world over because of the pandemic and huge demand destruction that we have witnessed. It will be very difficult to say how many will survive.

In its latest report, CAPA India said that Indian carriers except IndiGo (India’s largest domestic player) need to raise capital infusion in billions for them to survive and to meet their cost (Major cost such as Lease expense and Staff cost). As of now, the Indigo is well-placed in terms of cash reserves compared with other Indian carriers However, it too is not immune to risks in the event of a prolonged crisis.

They said that even as airlines in India prepare to resume operations post the lock-down, the next big test for them lies in the possible Supreme Court ruling on passenger refunds. The background is that after domestic and international air services in India were grounded from 25-Mar-2020, Indian carriers informed passengers that payment received for travel on flights that had been cancelled as a result of the lock-down, would be held in credit for a period of 12 months rather than being refunded. If the Apex Court does rule against them, airlines may need to shell out $500 million in refunds; $300 million for domestic tickets, and the rest for international.

They added that social distancing and inspection protocols issued by the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) will seriously impact the ability of airlines to even recover their variable costs. Some carriers may lose less money by remaining grounded. In order to maintain social distancing on board aircraft, the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security has proposed below :

  • They must not sell the middle seat
  • and the last three rows should be kept vacant in the event that a passenger needs to be quarantined mid-flight.

The implication of this is that on a 180-seat narrow body aircraft, an airline can sell at maximum 108 seats, representing a 60% load factor. Even if social distancing is not in place, demand conditions are expected to be so weak that passenger loads are in any case unlikely to be any higher than that. This will naturally increase the average break-even fare.

Also in the coming days, it seems that air travel will fall in the future because in this testing period , the experience of work from home and video conferencing has been successfully tested and once the lock-down is uplifted, there will be a natural propensity on the part of corporate to do away with the air travel to the extent it is possible, for reasons like cash saving and most important , not trying to risk senior management personnel to any risk.

CAPA India has revised its traffic projections downwards for FY2021 :

  • For – domestic traffic has declined from 80-90 million, to 55-70 million
  • For – international estimates are down from 35-40 million, to 20-27 million

Around the world, 40% of passengers are planning to wait at least six months or more for air travel due to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, according to a survey conducted by the International Air Transport Association (IATA)

Meanwhile, 60% anticipate that they could return to airline travel after one to two months of containment of the COVID-19 pandemic, the IATA said in a statement.

It will be interesting to watch that how airlines will come forward with innovations and take care of the security aspect and health for the staff as well as passenger. Even if the suspension is lifted, the fear of travel will still be there due to this deadly disease. Recovery requires strategic decisions to be taken by the industry and government. Airlines are facing their darkest hour and the government support is very much needed now to ensure that they will have a viable airline industry to lead the economic recovery.